By Rob Rains

The deadline passed Saturday night for the Hall of Fame voters to submit their ballots for the Class of 2012, which will be announced on Jan. 9.

For all but a few of the 27 former players listed on the ballot, there is no suspense and no worry attached to this vote because they have absolutely no chance of getting elected. Many of the 13 candidates on the ballot for the first time will receive less than 5 percent of the vote, if they get any votes at all, and will be dropped from future consideration.

Barry Larkin, the former Cincinnati shortstop who fell just short of election in his first year of eligibility last year, almost certainly will get good news this time. Former Houston first baseman Jeff Bagwell and former Detroit pitcher Jack Morris also could come close to receiving the required 75 percent of the nearly 600 ballots which will be cast.

For the other candidates, including former Cardinal closer Lee Smith, it will just be another year of frustration, another year of wondering why they cannot seem to garner enough votes to be viewed as a serious candidate for the Hall.

This is Smith’s 10^th year on the ballot (out of a possible 15) and he has finished between fifth and eighth on the ballot each year. His range of support has gone from a low of 36.6 percent in 2004, his second year of eligibility, to a high of 47.3 percent in 2010. He received 45.3 percent of the vote a year ago, the fifth best candidate on the ballot.

Through 2008, Smith’s candidacy was hurt by the fact that first Bruce Sutter and then Goose Gossage were also on the ballot. Sutter was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2006 and Gossage two years later. Despite the fact Smith’s career statistics are very favorable to both of those closers, his vote total has gone virtually unchanged the last three years.

And the bad news for Smith is that if he is not elected this year, which almost certainly will be the case, there likely is next to no chance that he will be elected before his 15 years of eligibility will be expired.

In each of the past nine years that Smith has been on the ballot, the baseball writers have never elected more than two players to the Hall in any one year. Starting next year, the new candidates who will become eligible for election will severely test that history – with most of the newcomers likely to receive more votes than Smith.

The first-year class in 2013 will include Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling and Craig Biggio. In 2014, the first-year candidates will include Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas and Mike Mussina.

Looking even farther ahead, the four new candidates in 2015 who all figure to receive more votes than Smith are John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Gary Sheffield. The class of 2016 will be led by Ken Griffey Jr. and Trevor Hoffman.

Hoffman’s candidacy, which will be followed a few years later by Mariano Rivera, might be what has hurt Smith’s chances the most. When Smith retired after the 1997 season, he had 478 career saves, the most of any reliever in history. At the time, nobody else had more than 400. Since then, Hoffman and Rivera have shot past him to record more than 600 saves, which makes Smith’s total – even though it still ranks third all-time — not all that impressive to the voters. In fact, John Franco – fourth on the all-time list with 424 saves — received only 27 votes in his first year of eligibility last year and was dropped from future consideration.

Smith, like Sutter and Gossage, pitched in a different era. He led the league in saves four times and had nine seasons of 30 or more saves. In his brief time with the Cardinals, 1991 to 1993, he earned 160 of those saves, still the second most in franchise history. He recorded three of the top five single-season save performances in team history.

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He was an All-Star seven times and three times was voted the Rolaids Reliever of the Year. He finished second in Cy Young award voting in 1991. He still is the franchise leader in saves for the Cubs with 180. He is one of only 15 pitchers in history to appear in more than 1,000 games in his major-league career.

It just doesn’t look like he is going to be adding Hall of Famer to that resume anytime soon. Once his 15 years of eligibility on the writer’s ballot expires, any possible election will be up to the Veterans Committee.

For the record, my votes this year went to Smith, Larkin, Bagwell, Morris and Tim Raines.

Around the majors

In the last month the Athletics have traded away the three players who represented the team in the last four All-Star games – pitchers Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey and Trevor Cahill – and acquired 10 prospects in exchange. This is a definite signal to commissioner Bud Selig that the team does not intend to be competitive until its proposed move to San Jose is approved. The Giants, of course, are trying to block the move because of territorial rights. Selig has to work this out because the A’s this year will be terrible. They have only one player with more than five years of MLB experience and their payroll will be the lowest in the majors… In addition to the trades, the A’s also have lost outfielders Josh Willingham and David DeJesus as free agents … Thinking the move will happen someday, St. Louis native and A’s owner Lew Wolff closed on another hotel purchase in San Jose last week, gving him two hotels just down the street from the proposed site for the team’s new stadium … With the high price for pitching talent, the Tigers realize they will have to include top prospect Jacob Turner if they are going to get Matt Garza from the Cubs or another front-line starter … Toronto is said to be willing to include top prospect Kyle Drabek in its proposed package for Garza … Among the teams said to have interest in former Cardinal infielder Ryan Theriot are the Braves, Reds, Mets and Rays… Agent Scott Boras reportedly wants a five-year $60 million deal for pitcher Edwin Jackson.

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